Mapping the Future: Predicting the Carrying Capacity of Agricultural Land in Magetan Regency for Sustainable Development
Abstract
This study aims to map the carrying capacity of agricultural land in Magetan Regency for sustainable development with a focus on predicting changes in land needs caused by population growth. Over the next two decades, it is projected that the population of Magetan Regency will experience significant growth, directly impacting the increasing demand for agricultural land to meet nutritional requirements. This investigation determined that the land carrying capacity value in Magetan Regency has exhibited a downward trend over the subsequent two decades. In 2024, the land carrying capacity value was estimated to be 0.91 and continues to decline to 0.82 in 2044. This value indicates that agricultural land in Magetan Regency will be in the category of exceedingly poor (DDLB <1), indicating the inability of the land to support the increasing food needs of the population. The conclusion of this study highlights the major challenges faced by Magetan Regency in maintaining food security and agricultural sustainability. Serious policy interventions are needed to address this problem, including more efficient land management, innovative agricultural practices, and land use restructuring. A sustainable development approach involving local community-based management and an emphasis on land carrying capacity as a critical component can help maintain agricultural land function and meet future food needs.
Keywords: land carrying capacity; food security; sustainable development
DOI:10.62321/issn.1000-1298.2024.08.02
Download Full Text:
PDFReferences
BARTHEL S, ISENDAHL C, VIS B N, et al. Global urbanization and food production in direct competition for land: leverage places to mitigate impacts on SDG2 and on the Earth System. The Anthropocene Review, 2019, 6(1–2), 71–97.
PAWLAK K, KOŁODZIEJCZAK M. The role of agriculture in ensuring food security in developing countries: considerations in the context of the problem of sustainable food production. Sustainability, 2020, 12(13), 5488.
HOSSAIN A, KRUPNIK T J, TIMSINA J, et al. Agricultural land degradation: processes and problems undermining future food security. In: FAHAD S, HASANUZZAMAN M, ALAM M, et al. (eds.) Environment, climate, plant and vegetation growth. Cham: Springer, 2020: 17–61.
SINGH V, CHAUDHARY N. Land degradation, desertification, and food security in North-East India: present and future scenarios. In: ANAND S, DAS M, BHATTACHARYYA R, et al. (eds.) Sustainable Development Goals in Northeast India: challenges and achievements. Singapore: Springer, 2023: 153–166.
MGANGA K Z. Agricultural land degradation in Kenya. In: PEREIRA P, MUÑOZ-ROJAS M, BOGUNOVIC I, et al. (eds.) Impact of Agriculture on Soil Degradation I: perspectives from Africa, Asia, America and Oceania. Cham: Springer, 2023: 273–300.
ZHANG Z, HU B, QIU H. Comprehensive evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity based on SDGs perspective and three-dimensional balance model. Ecological Indicators, 2022, 138, 108788.
WANG X. Managing land carrying capacity: key to achieving sustainable production systems for food security. Land, 2022, 11(4), 484.
LIU B, QIN X, ZHANG F. System-dynamics-based scenario simulation and prediction of water carrying capacity for China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2022, 82, 103912.
CUI Y, LIU J, XU X, et al. Accelerating cities in an unsustainable landscape: urban expansion and cropland occupation in China, 1990–2030. Sustainability, 2019, 11(8), 2283.
AMIRI N, LAHLALI R, AMIRI S, et al. Development of an integrated model to assess the impact of agricultural practices and land use on agricultural production in Morocco under climate stress over the next twenty years. Sustainability, 2021, 13(21), 11943.
MANNERS R, VAN ETTEN J. Are agricultural researchers working on the right crops to enable food and nutrition security under future climates? Global Environmental Change, 2018, 53, 182–194.
CASSIDY E S, WEST P C, GERBER J S, et al. Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare. Environmental Research Letters, 2013, 8(3), 034015.
SANCHI I D, ALHASSAN Y J, MANGA T A, et al. Impact of soaring food prices and erratic rainfall on the 2024 growing season in Northern Nigeria: the way forward. African Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2024, 2(3), 1–15.
ZENG Q, YE X, CAO Y, et al. Impact of expanded built-up land on ecosystem service value by considering regional interactions. Ecological Indicators, 2023, 153, 110397.
PETERS C J, PICARDY J, DARROUZET-NARDI A F, et al. Carrying capacity of US agricultural land: ten diet scenarios. Elementa, 2016, 4, 000116.
CANDIDO L A, COÊLHO G A G, DE MORAES M M G A, et al. Review of decision support systems and allocation models for integrated water resources management focusing on joint water quantity-quality. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2022, 148(2), 03121001.
RIMAL B, ZHANG L, KESHTKAR H, et al. Land use/land cover dynamics and modeling of urban land expansion by the integration of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 2018, 7(4), 154.
RUBEN G B, ZHANG K, DONG Z, et al. Analysis and projection of land-use/land-cover dynamics through scenario-based simulations using the CA-Markov model: a case study in Guanting Reservoir Basin, China. Sustainability, 2020, 12(9), 3747.
DIETRICH J P, SCHMITZ C, MÜLLER C, et al. Measuring agricultural land-use intensity – a global analysis using a model-assisted approach. Ecological Modelling, 2012, 232, 109–118.
LI K, JIN X, MA D, et al. Evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity of China’s rapid-urbanization areas—a case study of Xinbei District, Changzhou. Land, 2019, 8(4), 69.
KARAMI H, SAYAHNIA R, MAHMOUDI H, et al. Spatial analysis of resources and environmental carrying capacity in Iran. Natural Resources Forum, 2023, 47(1), 60–86.
VISSER N, KEESSTRA N, MAAS N, et al. Soil as a basis to create enabling conditions for transitions towards sustainable land management as a key to achieve the SDGs by 2030. Sustainability, 2019, 11(23), 6792.
DAGDAG O, HSISSOU R, BERISHA A, et al. Polymeric-based epoxy cured with a polyaminoamide as an anticorrosive coating for aluminum 2024-T3 surface: experimental studies supported by computational modeling. Journal of Bio- and Tribo-Corrosion, 2019, 5(3), 58.
EIDIN E, BIELIK T, TOUITOU I, et al. Thinking in terms of change over time: opportunities and challenges of using system dynamics models. Journal of Science Education and Technology, 2023, 33(1), 1–28.
GÜNERALP B, REBA M, HALES B U, et al. Trends in urban land expansion, density, and land transitions from 1970 to 2010: a global synthesis. Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15(4), 044015.
SEPTANTI K S, YOFA R D, MULYONO J, et al. Analysis of rice supply in the Nusantara Capital City. BIO Web of Conferences, 2024, 119, 02006.
SAPKOTA N, YADAV P K, SAPKOTA S. An economic analysis of rice production in Rautahat District of Nepal. Food and Agri Economics Review, 2021, 1(1), 1–9.
GHARAIBEH A A, AL-SHBOUL D A, AL-RAWABDEH A M, et al. Establishing regional power sustainability and feasibility using wind farm land-use optimization. Land, 2021, 10(5), 442.
PUSPITASARI C, SUTRISNO J, ANTRIYANDARTI E. Analysis of willingness to pay of farmers on irrigation networks maintenance fees in the Gonggang reservoir, Magetan. Journal of Water and Land Development, 2024, 60(I–III), 91–99.
COLETTA V R, PAGANO A, PLUCHINOTTA I, et al. Causal loop diagrams for supporting nature based solutions participatory design and performance assessment. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021, 280, 111668.
STURMBERG J P, MARCUM J A. From cause and effect to causes and effects. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 2024, 30(2), 296–308.
TALUKDER B, GANGULI N, MATTHEW R, et al. Climate change-triggered land degradation and planetary health: a review. Land Degradation & Development, 2021, 32(16), 4509–4522.
HOLMAN I P, BROWN C, JANES V, et al. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis. Agricultural Systems, 2017, 151, 126–135.
TIAN X, ENGEL B A, QIAN H, et al. Will reaching the maximum achievable yield potential meet future global food demand? Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021, 294, 126285.
HEMATHILAKE D M K S, GUNATHILAKE D M C C. Agricultural productivity and food supply to meet increased demands. In: BHAT R. (ed.) Future foods: global trends, opportunities, and sustainability challenges. Elsevier, 2022: 539–553. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91001-9.00016-5
JHA R. Increasing pace of urbanization and implications for food security and sustainable agriculture. In: BALI SWAIN R, SWEET S. (eds.) Sustainable consumption and production, Volume I: challenges and development. Cham: Springer, 2021: 249–262.
KOROSO N H, ZEVENBERGEN J A. Urban land management under rapid urbanization: exploring the link between urban land policies and urban land use efficiency in Ethiopia. Cities, 2024, 153, 105269.
ROSIADI A, JUNIARKO O, PUTRO P W, et al. Can agropolitan promise prosperity and sustainability? The Journal of Indonesia Sustainable Development Planning, 2022, 3(1), 75–94.
MEYBECK A, CINTORI L, CAVATASSI R, et al. Natural resources management for resilient inclusive rural transformation. Global Food Security, 2024, 42, 100794.
KIRUI E C, KIDOIDO M M, MUTYAMBAI D M, et al. Farmers’ knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding the use of agroecological-based pest management practices in crucifers and traditional african vegetable (TAV) production in Kenya and Tanzania. Sustainability, 2023, 15(23), 16491.
JUHANDI D, DARWANTO D H, MASYHURI M, et al. Farm sustainability assessment and model: achieving food security through the Food Estate Program in North Sumatra. Land, 2023, 12(10), 1833.
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.