The Impact of VUCA on Socio-Ecological Factors in Gili Ketapang's Marine Conservation Area Management
Abstract
Effective marine conservation requires adaptive and integrated management strategies that consider the dynamic and unpredictable conditions of coastal environments. This study introduces the VUCA framework—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—as a novel moderating factor in the relationship between economic, ecological, social, cultural, and institutional dimensions and management of the Gili Ketapang Marine Conservation Area (MCA). Using a quantitative survey method with data from 365 respondents selected via accidental sampling, this study investigates how these socio-ecological factors impact MCA management and how VUCA conditions influence these relationships. The findings reveal that economic and ecological factors do not significantly affect MCA management, whereas social, cultural, and institutional factors exert a significant positive impact. Furthermore, VUCA conditions negatively moderate the relationship between community culture and MCA management but positively moderate the institutional relationship. This study contributes a novel perspective by applying the VUCA concept, traditionally used in business and management contexts, to marine conservation governance, offering a new model for navigating socio-ecological complexity.
Keywords: VUCA, Marine Protected Areas, Conservation Management, Socio-Ecological Systems, Institutional Governance, Community Culture, Indonesia.
DOI：https://doi.org/10.62321/issn.1000-1298.2025.3.2
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